The Veterinary Industry Isn’t Recession-Proof After All, and the Data Is Alarming

For years, the veterinary profession has clung to a comforting belief: no matter what happens in the economy, people will always take care of their pets. But a new study, Anticipating the downturn: business cycle forecasting for veterinary practice strategy in the United States, is throwing a serious bucket of cold water on that assumption—and every clinic owner should pay attention.

Researchers pulled more than twenty years of economic data—from inflation patterns to consumer spending behavior, to build a forecasting model for the veterinary industry’s own business cycle. The result? A detailed ARIMA-based projection that suggests the industry has already slipped into a recessionary phase, and may stay there through mid-2026.

In plain English: the slowdown vets started to “feel” in late 2024 wasn’t in their heads. The math backs it up.

The study breaks the veterinary business cycle into four phases—Recovery, Expansion, Contraction, and Recession—and argues that practices who understand these shifts can survive them. Those who don’t… won’t. According to the model, real veterinary expenditure growth turned negative as the industry entered its current recession phase. Driving forces include flat consumer income, inflation pressures, and changing pet-owner behavior.

And while the findings aren’t meant to spark panic, they make one thing painfully clear: the profession isn’t magically insulated from the rest of the economy. Practices that prepare now—tightening cash flow, monitoring KPIs, and adjusting service strategies—will be in a far stronger position than those leaning on outdated assumptions.

Recession won’t last forever, but ignoring it could cost clinics more than the downturn itself.

If you want to dive into the full analysis, you can read the original study here:
https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/veterinary-science/articles/10.3389/fvets.2025.1689704/full