Key predictors of avian flu outbreaks identified

Several local factors — including the minimum temperature reached in autumn, the water level in lakes and ponds in winter, and the presence of mute swans (Cygnus olor) — could be key for predicting the potential of an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian flu (HPAI) occurring in Europe. The findings, published in Scientific Reports, are derived from a machine learning model trained on the characteristics of 21st century European HPAI outbreaks and could help improve future monitoring programmes.