The Diseases That Could Break the Food System: 5 Livestock Threats Every Vet Needs to Know

Production animal disease outbreaks are no longer just herd health problems. They are economic shockwaves that can ripple through trade, food prices, and consumer confidence. According to a new Farm Journal Foundation report titled The Mean Sixteen: Biosecurity Threats Facing U.S. Agriculture, the top five livestock diseases alone could collectively cost U.S. agriculture more than $300 billion annually without adequate preparedness. For veterinary professionals working in food animal medicine, this report is not just policy reading. It is a reminder that the exam room, the barn aisle, and the biosecurity plan are all part of national food security.

Below are the five diseases identified as having the greatest potential to disrupt U.S. livestock production, trade, and response infrastructure at scale.

Foot-and-Mouth Disease: A Trade-Ending Scenario

Foot-and-mouth disease remains one of the most feared foreign animal diseases globally. It affects cloven-hoofed animals including cattle, swine, sheep, and goats and spreads rapidly through aerosols, fomites, and animal movement. The U.S., Canada, and Mexico are currently classified as FMD-free, but recent outbreaks in Europe highlight how quickly the disease can reemerge. In modern U.S. production systems defined by high animal density and frequent interstate movement, containment would be extraordinarily complex.

A Kansas State University analysis estimated that an FMD outbreak in a high-density livestock state could cost nearly $200 billion if no emergency vaccination strategy were implemented. While an animal vaccine bank was mandated by the 2018 farm bill and FMD was selected as the first stockpiled disease, vaccine use in FMD-free countries remains complicated. Vaccinated animals are difficult to distinguish from infected ones, and international trade bans can still be triggered under World Organization for Animal Health protocols. For veterinarians, early detection and reporting would be critical in determining whether an outbreak becomes a contained event or an economic disaster.

African Swine Fever: The $80 Billion Pork Problem

African swine fever continues to spread globally and represents one of the most severe threats to U.S. pork production. The virus causes hemorrhagic fever with extremely high mortality rates and has no widely available commercial vaccine. The 2018 ASF outbreak in China resulted in the loss of approximately half of the country’s swine herd, or about 225 million pigs, with an estimated economic impact of $111 billion. Since then, the disease has expanded across Asia and Europe.

If ASF were detected in the U.S., projected economic losses approach $80 billion due to export disruptions and reduced industry revenue. The impact would likely extend beyond pork, as decreased feed demand could affect crop markets. The presence of widespread feral hog populations would further complicate control efforts. In 2025, the World Organization for Animal Health adopted its first international standards for ASF vaccines, followed by field evaluation and post-vaccination monitoring guidance. While this marks progress, prevention still relies heavily on surveillance, biosecurity, and veterinary vigilance.

New World Screwworm: A Pest with Billion-Dollar Consequences

New World screwworm is a parasitic fly whose larvae consume living tissue after eggs are laid in wounds. Once eradicated from the U.S. in 1966 through sterile fly release programs, the pest has reemerged as a serious concern. Since early 2025, NWS outbreaks have been moving northward through Central America and Mexico, with recent detections just 120 miles south of the U.S.-Mexico border. The USDA estimates that an introduction into Texas alone could cost the state at least $1.8 billion and put the broader U.S. beef industry at risk.

Federal response efforts include expanded sterile fly production, border closures to cattle imports, and increased coordination with state animal health officials. Facilities in Mexico and Texas are now producing sterile male flies using the same technique that achieved eradication decades ago. Even without U.S. cases, economic impacts are already being felt. Border closures have tightened cattle supplies, and industry leaders predict continued upward pressure on beef prices, potentially pushing ground beef to $10 per pound by late 2026.

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza: No Longer Just a Poultry Issue

Highly pathogenic avian influenza has evolved into a persistent and multi-species challenge. The U.S. has experienced multiple major outbreaks over the past decade, including losses of more than 50 million birds from 2014 to 2015. The current outbreak, which began in 2022, has now affected flocks in all 50 states, with an estimated 169 million birds lost as of April 2025. HPAI has also crossed species lines, with documented infections in humans, swine, cats, dogs, and dairy cattle.

In 2024, HPAI was confirmed in dairy herds in Texas and Kansas. Since then, more than 300 dairy herds across 14 states have been affected. While milk prices have not yet shown significant impact, egg prices surged dramatically, reaching 350 percent of the previous year’s levels by March 2025. For veterinarians, HPAI underscores the importance of cross-sector collaboration and a One Health mindset that accounts for animal, human, and economic health.

Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome: The Quiet Billion-Dollar Drain

Unlike foreign animal diseases that dominate headlines, PRRS is an endemic threat that quietly drains the U.S. swine industry year after year. First identified in the U.S. in 1987, PRRS causes reproductive failure in sows and respiratory disease in pigs of all ages. The disease often goes unnoticed until reproductive losses appear, making early detection challenging. Iowa State University estimates that PRRS cost the U.S. swine industry approximately $1.2 billion annually between 2016 and 2020, an 80 percent increase compared to a decade earlier. There is no cure, and control relies on biosecurity, vaccination, and management strategies. In 2025, the FDA approved a gene edit used in PRRS-resistant pigs developed by PIC. While widespread adoption is still years away, the technology represents a potential shift in how the industry approaches disease resilience.

What This Means for Veterinary Professionals

Across all five diseases, the Farm Journal Foundation report highlights recurring vulnerabilities in U.S. animal health preparedness. These include fragmented biosecurity coordination, gaps in outbreak training, limited vaccine stockpiling, and underinvestment in research. Key priorities moving forward include improved national coordination for outbreak response and culling guidelines, expanded training for veterinarians in early detection and reporting, support for vaccine banks and faster regulatory pathways, and increased research into biological controls and disease-resistant genetics.

For millennial veterinarians who entered the profession with a strong interest in public health, sustainability, and systems thinking, these challenges sit squarely at the intersection of animal care and national security. Protecting livestock health is no longer just about preventing disease. It is about safeguarding the food system itself.