Could This Model Stop the Next Swine Pandemic? New Research Reveals What It Really Takes to Eliminate African Swine Fever in the U.S.

As African swine fever (ASF) continues to devastate pig populations across Asia, Europe, and the Caribbean, the threat of the virus reaching the United States is more a matter of when than if. A new study has taken a sobering look at what it would actually take to eliminate ASF from the southeastern U.S. within a year—and the results are eye-opening.

Using a powerful simulation tool called PigSpread-ASF, researchers modeled the potential spread and control of ASF across nearly 2,000 commercial swine farms, focusing on high-density regions in North Carolina. This updated, spatially explicit model incorporated real-world factors like animal and vehicle movement, indirect transmission from humans and equipment, and environmental contamination. It also aligned with current USDA guidelines detailed in the ASF National Response Plan, often referred to as “The Red Book.”

Current Plans May Not Be Enough

Under existing USDA protocols, the model showed that only about 65% of outbreak scenarios would end in full elimination within 12 months. That number falls far short of what’s needed to protect the U.S. pork industry, especially in regions with dense commercial operations and rapid virus transmission.

What Really Works? A New Playbook for ASF Control

To achieve total ASF elimination in all modeled scenarios, researchers tested enhanced containment strategies. The winning formula required:

  • Expanding the buffer zone around infected farms from 2 km to 5 km

  • Extending the surveillance period to 60 days

  • Enforcing a 30-day standstill on all pig and vehicle movements

  • Applying quarantine and contact tracing measures for at least 60 days

  • Delaying repopulation of cleared farms until the outbreak fully resolves

  • Accelerating detection to activate containment measures sooner

These tactics significantly boosted the model’s success rate, offering a realistic blueprint for authorities preparing for a potential U.S. outbreak.

Want to End It Even Faster? Here’s the Cost

The model also explored high-speed eradication scenarios, aiming to eliminate ASF in just three to nine months. But speed came at a steep price. A three-month elimination goal would require:

  • Expanding control zones to 20 km (over 12 miles)

  • Maintaining all zones for 90 days

  • Enforcing 90-day movement standstills and quarantine tracing

Such measures would be logistically extreme and economically disruptive—but potentially life-saving for an industry worth billions.

Balancing Science and Sustainability

While the study confirms that ASF can be eliminated in a year or less, it also raises critical questions about economic feasibility. Larger buffer zones, longer standstills, and restricted repopulation could strain producers, workforce logistics, and regional trade. The success of such interventions depends heavily on accurate movement tracking, efficient biosecurity protocols, and rapid diagnostic capabilities.

Why This Research Matters—Right Now

With no approved vaccine for ASF in the U.S., early detection and decisive action are the only defenses. This study offers animal health officials a detailed roadmap, complete with target timelines and control thresholds. It also challenges policymakers to rethink whether current response plans go far enough—and whether the industry is truly prepared.

The takeaway is clear: Eliminating ASF is possible, but only with faster action, bigger zones, tighter restrictions—and a willingness to invest heavily before the virus spreads. Because once it does, time and resources will be in short supply.

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